【摘要】 根据河北平原多年降水、气温及冬小麦产量资料,利用回归分析、M-K突变检验、T检验、线性调和滑动平均等统计分析方法,分析了1951～2006年河北省气候变化特征及其对冬小麦气候产量的影响。结果表明:河北省春季气温近56年来线性升高倾向显著,平均每10年升高0.38℃,春季降水近56年无明显线性增减倾向。冬小麦气候产量与气温、降水显著相关,当气温距平在-1.2～1.2℃之间时,小麦气候产量为正值,温度过低或过高都会使小麦减产,高温使小麦减产更严重,降水量和小麦气候产量呈正相关。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on climate characteristics and wheat production data for 1951～2006 on the Hebei Plain and in conjunction with regression analysis,M-K examination,T-test,linear reconcile moving average and other statistical methods,the influence of climate change on winter wheat production was investigated.The results show an obvious linear rise in temperature for the spring of 1951～2006 at the rate of 0.38 °C per decade.No significant linear change of spring rainfall during 1951~2006 is observed.Wheat production has significant correlation with air temperature and rainfall.The wheat climate yield is positive when the temperature varies between-1.2～1.2℃.High or low temperatures,but especially high temperatures,lead to decreasing wheat yield.And continuous high temperatures in recent years have led to decreasing wheat yield.Accordingly,excessively high or low rainfall significantly decreases wheat yield.更多还原