【摘要】 将DSSAT作物模型与PRECIS区域气候模式相嵌套,在25km×25km网格尺度上,模拟未来气候情景下宁夏马铃薯的生产。结果表明:在B2排放情景下,假定作物品种和播期不变,考虑未来大气中CO2的肥效作用,在2020S和2050S,宁夏马铃薯的生育期可能缩短5%和3%,产量则可能增加11.3%和13.3%;如果品种不变、播期提前,马铃薯的生育期将延长,产量将会增加,但播期提前超过10d后,增产幅度将减小;如果改种温度敏感系数低的品种,马铃薯的生育期将延长、产量提高。因此,在宁夏地区,应采取播期提前或培育温度敏感系数低的马铃薯新品种以适应当地未来的气候变化。更多还原

【Abstract】 The potato production was simulated in Ningxia at 25km×25km grid under B2 emission scenario by using DSSAT crop model associated with the climate change scenario produced by PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies).The results showed that keeping potato variety and field managements unchanged and taking account of CO2 fertilization,by 2020S and 2050S,the potato yield will increase 11.3% and 13.3% respectively under B2 scenario,and the growing season will shorten about 5% and 3%.If the sowing date was advanced and other measures didn’t be changed,the potato yield would increase and growing season would prolong.But when the advanced sowing date exceeded 10 days,the increasing extent of yield would decrease.Contrarily,potato yield would decrease and growing season would shorten when sowing date were postponed.While changing the cultivar sensitivity coefficient to air temperature(TC),the simulation results indicated that the yield and growing season of potato would augment when TC was decreased,if TC was increased,the yield and growing season of potato would descend.So advanced sowing data and planted lower TC potato would reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on Ningxia potato production.更多还原