【摘要】 利用投入产出技术的前向关联和后向关联方法可以分析某一部门与其它部门的直接或完全联系(或影响),却没有突出多个部门间的生产链联系.利用中国1987—2002年序列投入产出表和APL模型,计算发现国民经济中存在三条重要的生产链.对这三条生产链尤其是农业生产链的演化情况进行分析,对其未来做出趋势预测,并提出相应的政策建议.更多还原

【Abstract】 In studying the interrelationship between sectors,forward linkage and backward linkage of Input-output analysis are generally used,while the result is the direct or complete relationship between one section and another,and the production chains linkage of multiple sectors are not highlighted.Based on APL model and China’s Sequence Input-Output Tables during 1987—2002,this paper finds three important production chains of China′s economy,then analyses their evolution process especially in the agricultural chain,and the trend of these main production chains is predicted and the relevant proposition is put forward.更多还原