【摘要】 通过分析供应链风险影响因素,针对各风险因素对供应链风险的影响程度的大小和各风险因素相对于供应链风险的权重难以确定的问题,运用人工神经元网络(ANN)与专家系统(ES)相结合的方法建立了基于模糊综合评判与人工神经网络法的综合评估模型.模型中评价因素集和评价权重集综合考虑了影响供应链稳定的各种风险因素及其所占的权重,并可在评判过程中通过变换各个指标的权重来进行敏感性分析.实际数据检验表明与其他方法相比,评价精度较高,方法简单易行.更多还原

【Abstract】 The influence of various risk factors and the weights of them to whole supply chain are hard to be decided.A comprehensive model is introduced by using Expert System(ES) and Artificial Neural Networks(ANN).The judgment factor set and judgment weight set in the model take various risk factors and their weights to the stability of the supply chain into account comprehensively.To change the weight of every factor,sensitivity analyses are also carried out in the process of judgment.Verification by using real case data shows that the precision of the model is relatively high and the method is easy and quick.更多还原