【摘要】 粮食生产资源利用效率研究是实现粮食稳产、高产的前提,也是保障国家粮食安全的理论基础。对不同条件下的作物生产潜力准确估算和适宜的资源利用效率评价是粮食生产资源利用效率研究的核心内容。本文采用PS123作物生长模型进行作物生产潜力计算,根据山东省禹城市实际状况,确定了模型输入参数,计算了研究区玉米、小麦和大豆的光合、光温、气候和气候-土壤生产潜力,采用作物结构订正计算区域粮食生产潜力。考虑粮食生产中光热资源、水资源、土地资源、社会经济资源等方面,从准则层和因子层两个层面构建了粮食生产资源利用效率评价模型,确定了各评价因子的目标值和权重,对禹城市粮食生产资源利用效率进行评价。研究结果表明:①山东省禹城市光合生产潜力52 784kg/hm2,光温生产潜力11 023kg/hm2,气候生产潜力8 377kg/hm2,气候-土壤生产潜力6 450kg/hm2,对这3种作物的实际产量进行结构订正得到该市1999年~2001年粮食平均现实生产能力为6 244kg/hm2,禹城市粮食生产潜力较大;②制约粮食生产稳产、高产主要自然因子为水资源的不合理利用,劳动生产率、化肥利用率和产投比的低下是主要的社会经济限制因子。根据不同的限制性因子,本文提出了单项资源利用技术改进措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agricultural productivity research builds a basis for high and stable grain yield.It also guarantees the national food security theoretically.The key of this research is calculating the potential agricultural productivity under different conditions and formulating the indicator system for agricultural productivity.PS123 crop growth model is easy for use with less input parameters and more output parameters companing with other similar models.Many researches have been performed on how to localize the PS123 model in China.In this paper,the PS123 model was used to calculate the agricultural productivity in Yucheng County,Shandong Province.The photosynthesis potential productivity(PPP) was calculated using HUANG Bingwei’s equation.The temperature potential productivity(TPP) and the climate potential productivity(CPP) were caculated by the PS123 model.And the land potential productivity(LPP) was calculated by multiplying an effective coefficient of soil efficacy,which is decided by AHP.After the potential productivities of main crops including maize,wheat and soybean in Yucheng County were calculated,the regional food productivity was calculated based on the crop structure.Considering the heat,the water,the land and the socio-economic resource in food productivity system,an indicator system for agricultural productivity assessment was established including the resource-type layer and the determining-factor layer.The ultimate utilization of different determining-factors was confirmed on local conditions and some former studies.The results shows that: 1)PPP,TPP,CPP and LPP are(52 784) kg/hm~2,(11 023) kg/hm~2,(8 377) kg/hm~2,and(6 450) kg/hm~2,respectively.The regional food productivity was calculated through the actual food productivity of maize,wheat and soybean from 1999 to 2001 as well as the crop structure of the research region.The mean actual food productivity from 1999 to 2001 is(6 244) kg/hm~2.It is concluded that there is still some potential in agricultural in Yucheng County;2) The major constraints on agricultural productivity are the irrational water use as natural factor,and low labor productivity,low fertilizers productivity and low input-output ratio as socioeconomic factors.At last,suggestions on the improvement of some resource utilization techniques were proposed.更多还原