【摘要】 利用新古典的修正黄金律规则,通过数值模拟的方法估计了我国与修正黄金律相一致的最优储蓄率,在与实际储蓄率比较后发现:(1)我国的实际储蓄率在1978~2003年间平均为38%,低于最优储蓄率的基准值40.3%,因此认为不存在储蓄过度,经济整体是动态有效的;(2)20世纪90年代以来,实际储蓄率略微超过最优储蓄率,因此认为,存在一定程度的资本过度积累,我国90年代以来的经济有可能是动态无效的。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper estimates the optimal saving rate through the method of numerical simulation,utilizing the neo-classical modified Golden Rule.After comparing with actual saving rates,the major findings are:1)the annual average saving rate of China from 1978-2003 is 38%,less than the benchmark value of optimal saving rate 40.3%,indicating that China did not over-save and Chinese economy is dynamically efficient;2) since 1990,the actual saving rate was greater than the benchmark value by a small margin,so in this period too much capital was over-accumulated and Chinese economy might be dynamic inefficient.更多还原