【摘要】 利用中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG研发的全球海洋-大气-陆面系统模式(GOALS 4.0),引入了大气中真实的温室气体浓度变化,对华北地区的气候变化进行了模拟研究。为了检验GOALS 4.0模式对于未来30年华北地区气候变化趋势模拟结果的可信度,分析评估了GOALS 4.0模式对当代气候变化的模拟能力。模拟结果基本再现了20世纪60—70年代末的全球和北半球温度偏低以及80年代开始的增温现象,也较好地模拟了华北地区近50年来的两个重要气候冷(1950—1976年)、暖(1977—2000年)时期,模拟结果与实际观测相关为0.34(达到了0.05信度),华北地区的冬季温度变化幅度介于中国大陆东、西部之间。模式对华北地区夏季降水在20世纪80年代前后经历的丰枯时期转变模拟也比较理想。在此基础上,根据IPCC提供的大气温室气体未来排放情景,进一步模拟预估了华北地区未来30年的气候变化趋势。结果发现,在未来的30年中,中国大陆冬季温度将会呈现出不断上升趋势,华北是中国大陆增温最显著、增温幅度最大的地区,到2030年华北地区冬季的增温幅度相对多年平均(1961—1990年)上升2.5℃左右。未来30年的夏季,由于华北地区处于明显的水汽辐合区,偏南气流较强,大气中的可降水量增加,使得中国大陆的降水格局也会发生相应变化,呈现出南少北多的分布型态,华北地区夏季降水会明显增多,南方地区降水则有所减少。更多还原

【Abstract】 A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50-year and future 30-year was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0（Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model） developed by the state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics（LASG）,Institute of Atmospheric Physics（IAP）,Chinese Academy of Sciences（CAS）.In order to validate the model used,the modern climate from 1950-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration,and the simulation results compared with the observed data.The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from 1980s for the globe and North Hemisphere,and betterthe important cold（1950-1976） and warm periods（1977-2000） in the past 50 years for North China.The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations（significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level）.The range of winter temperature departures for North China is in between those for the eastern and western of Chinese Mainland.Meanwhile,the summer precipitation’s trend turning around 1980s is also successfully simulated.The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO₂ concentration under IPCC SRES B2 emission scenario.The results show that,in the future 30 years,winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase about 2.5 ℃ relative to climate mean（1960-1990）.Meanwhile,summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and reduce in southern China,displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.更多还原