【摘要】 使用一阶自回归随机过程来描述中国的消费波动,并重新估算经济波动福利成本和经济增长福利成本,研究结果表明,经济波动的福利成本和消费波动的可预测性是正相关的,并且在一阶自回归假设条件下计算出的福利成本略低于独立同分布情形。更多还原

【Abstract】 By using the AR(1) process to describe the consumption stream in China,this paper re-estimates the welfare cost of business cycles and reduced growth.The main findings of this paper is the positive correlation between the welfare cost of business cycle and the AR(1) coefficient and the lower estimated costs compared to the case of i.i.d.disturbance.更多还原