【摘要】 介绍灰色理论建模原理以及参数辨识方法,从年度用水量本身挖掘有用的信息,依据长治市1996年~2004年用水资料建立了灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,经检验模型精度达到96.4%,并用该模型对城市需水量进行了预测。预测结果表明,该模型用于城市需水量预测,符合其灰色特性,可检验,适用性好,可为长治市水资源规划与管理提供必要的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The gray treory modelling principle as well as the parameter recognizing method is introduced.The Gray GM(1,1) Model is established based on the water use data in 1996～2004 in Changzhi City,and the accuracy of the model reaches to 96.4%.The forecasting results for the urban water demand by this model show that the model conforms to the gray characteristic and the serviceability of the model is good,so it may provide the essential references for the water resources plan and management of Changzhi City.更多还原