【摘要】 为估计一定区域内基本农田保护面积,论文在探讨基本农田涵义的基础上,提出了区域人均基本农田需求面积的计算模型。该模型综合考虑了城乡居民对农产品的消费、复种指数、粮食作物播种面积比例、单产水平以及城市化水平等因素。以江苏省为例,计算1985—2004年江苏省城乡居民人均粮食消耗总当量。在此基础上,计算1985—2004年江苏省人均基本农田需求面积以及估计2005—2020年江苏省人均基本农田需求面积。结果表明,1985—2004年之间,江苏省人均基本农田需求面积平均值为0.054hm2,考虑在外饮食情况时,该值为0.059hm2;2005—2020年之间江苏省人均基本农田需求面积平均值为0.057hm2。更多还原

【Abstract】 For the purpose of calculating basic farmland to be protected in a specific region,this paper discussed the meaning of basic farmland,and defined regional per capita BFA farmland area(BFA).The paper believed that the regional per capita BFA was a function which included independent variables such as living standard,technology development level,per unit area yield,and natural calamity.Given that,the model to compute the regional per capita BFA was built.The model included parameters such as residents’ consumption,multiple-cropping index,the sown acreage proportion of grain crops,per unit area yield,and urbanization level.The relations between these independent variables and the regional per capita BFA were also analyzed in this paper.This paper showed that the regional per capita BFA had positive correlations with residents’consumption level and degree of grain self-sufficency,and negative correlations with multiple-cropping index,the sown acreage proportion of grain crops,and per unit area yield.However the relation between the regional per capita BFA and urbanization level was up to the ratio of urban household’s consumption to rural household’s consumption.Taking Jiangsu Province as an example,this paper calculated the annual per capita grain consumption equivalent of Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2004.For the purpose of increasing accuracy,the results from 1991-1998 were adjusted by the ratio of residents’food away-from-home expenditure to aggregate food expenditure,which would influence the residents’ consumption of produce dependent on cultivated land.It is found out that the annual per capita grain consumption including direct and indirect consumption from 1985 to 2004 tended to be stable,and the average values of the annual per capita grain consumption equivalent of urban household and rural household were respectively 284kg and 356kg.The paper also found that the change of the annual grain consumption equivalent of Jiangsu Province from 1991 to 1998 adjusted by the rate of residents’ food away-from-home expenditure was comparatively even,and the average values were respectively 361.46kg and 391.35kg.Furthermore,this paper calculated the value of per capita BFA in Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2004,estimated the value of per capita BFA in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2020,and analyzed the impact of multiple-cropping index and the sown acreage proportion of grain crops on the regional per capita BFA.The results show that the average value of per capita BFA of Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2004 is 0.054 ha without consideration of the food consumption away-from-home,which is 0.059ha if the food consumption away-from-home is included,and 0.057 ha from 2005 to 2020 when the influence of food consumption away-from-home is considered.更多还原