【摘要】 为研究温度对禽流感传播的影响,本文根据禽流感传播最适温度6℃～16℃确立了风险分析标准,以中国各个气象站的各月平均气温为基础数据,运用本实验室二次开发的地理信息系统软件绘制了风险图。研究结果显示风险区域随时间变化而转移,其时空模式为:1～5月,风险区域从南向北迁移;6～8月,除青藏高原外,全国基本处于低风险;9～12月,从北向南迁移。其时空转移规律与2004年第一季度的禽流感疫情扩散趋势基本吻合。更多还原

【Abstract】 To study the influences of temperature on the spread of avian influenza,a risk assessment standard was established according to the most favorable temperature for spreading of avian influenza,which was 6 ℃ to 16 ℃.Then the risk maps were drawn according to this standard on the map of China with EpiGeoInfo,a geographic information system software developed in our laboratory.The results showed that the high risk areas were under change during the whole year,which moved from south to north in Jan to May.From Jun to Aug,most areas of China were at a lower risk with Qinghai-Tibet Plateau exceptions.The high risk areas moved from north to south in Sep to Dec.The spatial and temporal characters of high risk areas had certain correlations with the avian influenza events in the 2004 AIV season in China.更多还原