【摘要】 在分析了现有共因失效模型的适用范围与局限性的基础上,从零件失效物理模型———应力-强度干涉模型出发,把零件失效概率看作是基于应力的条件概率,即为随机变量;推导了基于零件条件失效概率分布的共因失效概率模型;通过Monte Carlo法仿真及最优化方法优化,得到了零件条件失效概率分布的类型;对模型中的参数进行估计,得到部分失效数据下的参数估计值。该模型能够弥补传统模型某些方面的不足,通过算例验证了该方法的可行性,同时也证明了该方法具有更高的求解精度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on analyses made to limitations and applicable ranges of the present models,from the physical model of component’s failure-stress-strength interference model,a component’s failure probability was regarded as the conditional failure probability with its stress,that was a random variable.A model for common cause failure probability was derived based on the distribution of the conditional failure probability of components.Using Monte Carlo simulation and optimization algorithm,the distributed type of conditional failure probability of the components was obtained.And the distributed parameters were estimated to get their estimation values under incomplete data.The model can make up the inadequacy of traditional models.Examples were given to illustrate its feasibility and precision of the computation.更多还原