【摘要】 为了实现经济和环境的可持续发展,通过分析污染物排放与经济发展、能耗及能源结构的关系,建立了我国能源结构的马尔科夫预测模型和污染物排放预测模型,并对2010年我国能源结构和污染物的排放情况进行了预测。分析了现行发展模式下,实现2010年的经济发展目标所产生的污染物排放与环境发展目标的差距及应进行的政策调整力度。研究成果将为我国能源政策的制定和调整产生积极的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 To achieve the sustainable development of economy and environment, the relationship between the pollutant emission to the atmosphere and the development of economy, energy consumption and the energy structure of China was analyzed in this paper. The Markov forecasting model of energy structure and the pollutant emission model were established, in addition, the energy structure and pollutant emission of China in 2010 were forecasted. Based on this, this paper proposed the national energy structure and possible adjustment of energy policy to satisfy the sustainable development of economy and environment in China. The research is to be beneficial to the national energy policy making and adjusting.更多还原