【摘要】 以腐蚀管道失效压力和腐蚀速率分析为基础,建立了腐蚀管道可靠性极限状态函数和管道剩余寿命预测模型。采用改进的一次二阶矩法对腐蚀管道的可靠性指标和失效概率进行了分析和计算。结合工程实例,求解了某含腐蚀缺陷天然气管道不同服役年限的可靠性指标和失效概率,预测了该腐蚀管道的剩余寿命,计算和分析了工作压力、腐蚀速率、腐蚀深度和长度等参数对腐蚀管道可靠性的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 A limit state function of the corroded pipeline is presented on the basis of analysis of failure pressure and corrosion rate of corroded pipeline. The advanced first order and second moment iterative method are employed for calculation on reliability index and failure probability. As an engineering example,reliability index and failure probability are calculated and remaining life is predicted for a corroded pipeline. The effects of applied pressure, corrosion rate, defect depth and defect length on the reliability of corroded pipeline are evaluated.更多还原