【摘要】 气候系统是较典型的灰色系统,适于应用灰色系统理论预测模型进行预测。东川是泥石流高发区,降水是促发泥石流的动力条件,是泥石流预报的重要依据。基于1981～2003年的降水资料,应用灰色系统(1,1)预测模型,对东川地区未来年份的降水量进行了灰色预测,预测效果良好,可为当地气象部门、农业部门及防灾减灾部门提供科学的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Climate system is the typical grey system which more suitable for grey prediction.The precipitation is the mainly motive factors of debris flow occurrence,especially in the precipitation induced debris flow area-Dongchuan.Based on the precipitation data of every year in Dongchuan from 1981 to 2003,by established the GM(1,1) forecast model,discussed occurrence time of different annual precipitation.The effect is proved to be very good,this results can give reasonable suggestions for debris flow hazard mitigation.更多还原