【摘要】 借助于最优分割法和多通道奇异谱分析(MSSA)等方法对全球气候变化背景场阶段性变化及其与ENSO振荡信号的相互关系作了详细的诊断分析。结果表明:(1)全球近百年气温长期变化阶段性明显,各阶段之间的气候变率特征差异较大;(2)全球气温变化背景场的阶段性对ENSO的年际及年代际准周期振荡有较为明显的影响;(3)全球气温与Ni?o区海温的年际变率存在着准4年和准2年的显著耦合振荡。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the Optimum partition method and the Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis,study is made in detail of the diagnosis analysis on phased global climate change and its relation to the ENSO signals in terms of the relationship between global temperature and sea surface temperature(SST) in Nino areas.Results show that(1) there exist several distinct phases in the global temperature in the past 100 years;and the climatic variability differs evidently between adjacent phases;(2) the phases of the global temperature have a comparatively obvious influence on ESNO interannual and interdecadal quasi-periodical oscillations;(3) Marked quasi-four-and-two-year oscillations are revealed between the interannual variabilities of the global temperature and Nino area SST.更多还原