【摘要】 干旱是对人类及社会危害较大的一种自然灾害。近年来,干旱严重影响阜新地区的农业生产和生态平衡。利用阜新地区1961~2000年的降水资料,采用Z指标法分析阜新地区的干旱发生年,研究其干旱的发生规律,应用改进的GM(1,1)模型建立相应的干旱预测模型,并进行了干旱预测。最后提出了适当的抗旱措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Drought is a kind of disaster that has tremendous harm to the society.In recent years,the development of agriculture and zoology balance in Fuxin region has been hampered seriously by drought in recent years.Based on the rainfall data during 1961 to 2000 in Fuxin region,this paper analyzed the drought-occurring years through Z index method,studied the drought-occurring law in past years,established the model for drought forecast by using modified GM(1,1) model,and used the model to forecast drought-occurring years.Some suitable anti-drought measures were put forward in the end.更多还原