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吉林省柳河县水稻二化螟发生期预测模型的建立
Establishment of Forecasting Model for the Occurring Periods of Chilo suppressalis in Liuhe County of Jilin Province
【摘要】 在吉林省柳河县绿色稻米生产区,采用2001—2003年3月1日后当地有效积温和越冬代水稻二化螟性信息素诱捕器诱蛾数据,用双参数韦布尔函数模型探讨了有效积温和诱捕器诱蛾量之间的关系。结果表明:模型具有很好的拟合性,由韦布尔函数模型y=100×{1-exp[-(x/384.173 9)3.954 3]}确定当地越冬代水稻二化螟发蛾始盛期、高峰期和盛末期所需有效积温分别为247.010,350.172,447.769℃。借助该模型,只要知道当地3月1日后有效积温就可以预测相应日期诱蛾量,可及时指导大田防治。
【Abstract】 Based on the relationship between Chilo suppressalis male catches in pheromone traps and effective accumulated temperature over 3 years in Liuhe County,an established two-parameter Weibull function model,y=(100×){1-exp[-(x/384.173 9)3.954 3]},showed that the effective accumulated temperature corresponding to the catches of 16%,50% and 84% total Chilo suppressalis male moths throughout the flight season were 247.010,350.172,447.769℃.Once the local effective accumulated temperature reached 350.172,farmers could take control decisions on this pest.
【Key words】 Chilo suppressalis; pheromone catches; effective accumulated temperature; Weibull function;
- 【文献出处】 吉林农业大学学报 ,Journal of Jilin Agricultural University , 编辑部邮箱 ,2006年04期
- 【分类号】S435.112.1
- 【被引频次】4
- 【下载频次】132