【摘要】 年用电量的预测关系到电力系统的经济效益。通过对电力市场条件下年用电量的研究,应用混沌理论建立了在实际电量需求和可用电量共同限制作用下的年用电量模型。在不同的电量需求增长率基础上分析其混沌特性,得出产生混沌的充分条件。对不同的系统参数进行仿真分析,结果表明在供给和需求的共同作用下,年用电量可能会出现混沌行为。更多还原

【Abstract】 The forecasting accuracy of annual electricity consumption has close relationship with the profits of electric power companies.On the basis of analyzing annual electricity consumption in market environment,a model based on chaotic theory is proposed considering the common restriction of real demand and affordable supply.The condition that leads to chaos is given after analyzing chaotic characteristics of the model under different growth rates of electric power demand.Simulations with different system parameters are performed,and the results show that annual electricity consumption may be of chaos under the common restriction of demand and supply.更多还原