【摘要】 针对GM(1,1)模型预测的不足,对其进行修正得到修正模型,并利用芜湖市耕地变化进行实例验证和应用。结果表明:1)应用灰色预测的修正模型对耕地变化进行预测比直接应用灰色预测模型更精确;2)分段建模和建立灰色—马尔柯夫模型是从两个不同的角度对GM(1,1)模型进行修正,但两者可以相互结合,使预测结果更准确。3)建立灰色—马尔柯夫模型可以避免其他多种影响因素,更具科学性和实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the disadvantages of GM(1,1) prediction,this paper tries modifying it,and the modifying model is identified by the prediction of arable land in Wuhu City.The result shows:the prediction of modifying model is more precise than GM(1,1);the subsection modification and Markov modification make correction from two different aspects,but can reinforce each other for better results.Therefore,the optimized GM(1,1) model can precisely carry on the farming forecast and provide the theoretic base for the advanced research.更多还原