【摘要】 研究了电网投资中的影响供电企业效益的风险变量,根据变量物理意义构造概率分布函数,改变了传统的电网改造技术经济评价方法中把售电量、售电电价、购电电价、供电可靠率、线损率等因素作为固定值处理的做法。在此基础上,提出了一种市场环境下的电网投资改造项目的风险评价方法,利用“增量法”建立风险评价模型,计算出计及各类风险因素的项目净现值的期望值和方差,量化电网投资风险。最后通过案例分析表明,该评估模型能较好处理评估中的各类不确定因素,定量评估项目风险,是一种行之有效的、适合电网投资改造项目风险评估的方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper researches the risk variables affecting performance of power-supplying company in power grid investment activity, and builds the probability distributing functions according to the variables’ physical characteristic, which changes the method fixing power sale quantity, power sale price, power purchase price, power supply reliability and loss rate in traditional power grid renovation project technology &economics evaluation. A new risk evaluation method is presented for power grid renovation project in power market. The method builds risk evaluation model with increment principle, calculates the expected value and variance of project’s NPV, and quantifies power grid investment risk. Finally,case study suggests that the evaluating model is an efficient method to fit the risk evaluation of power grid renovation projects, which can handle all kinds uncertain factors and evaluate the risk of projects.更多还原