【摘要】 提出了一种新的基于贝叶斯法的电子器件可靠性指标估计方法.即首先利用以往批次产品的样本试验数据求出先验分布,然后利用当前批次产品的样本试验数据求出后验信息,最后将先验分布和后验信息代入贝叶斯公式求出需要的估计值.运用这种方法对电子器件的失效率,λ平均无故障工作时间θ和可靠度R(t)进行了点估计和区间估计.最后用算例加以分析.这种方法增加了估计样本的容量,解决了电子器件试验样本少、可靠性指标估计时缺少数据这一问题.更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper presents a new method for applying Bayesian theorem to evaluate the reliability index of electronic parts.The prior distribution is known according to the test data of previous sample products first,and then the posterior information is known according to the test data of current samples.Finally,the result is calculated by Bayesian formula.With this method, the paper evaluates the rate of failure λ,mean time to failure θ and reliability function R(t) of the electronic parts.At last an example is analyzed.The result shows that the method can solve the problem of lacking samples and test data of electronic parts to evaluate the reliability index.更多还原