【摘要】 运用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型与BP神经网络预测模型相结合而成的灰色神经网络模型,对山东枣庄市旅游人数进行预测。基本思路是运用灰色GM(1,1)模型所得到的预测值按前2年来预测下一年的组合规律分别作为BP神经网络的输入输出,并用旅游人数数据对模型进行学习验证。为山东枣庄市沿运区域旅游资源的合理利用及管理提供了科学依据,并以科学预测为依据提供一些观光农业旅游资源合理开发对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this article the grey-BP neural network model is composed of grey GM(1,1) model and BP neural network model were used to forecast the number of tour agriculture.The method is to take the forecast value of GM(1,1) model as the input and the output of BP neural network model respectively according to the compounding rule by using the former two-year forecasted data to forecast to the data of next year data and also to take instance to validate this model by using the number of tour agriculture.This model can efficiently combine the weakening data undulatory property virtue of grey theory with nonlinear property of BP neural network.The forecast model provided scientific base of the reasonable use and management of region tour resources along the Grand Canal in Zaozhuang of Shandong Province and took some reasonable development countermeasures of region tour agriculture resources according to this scientific forecast.更多还原