【摘要】 基于分形理论,根据流量变化的历史和实测资料,利用 R/S分析的原理和方法,计算了 H指数,建立了R(i)/S(i)与 i的关系式,对丰水年进行了预测分析。经实例研究初步表明,该方法应用在水文中长期预报中是可行的、合理的,结果较好,有很好的预报精度和应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Hurst exponent is calculated, and the relationship function between runoff R(i) and storage S(i) is established on the basis of Fractal Theory, and the flood prediction analysis of wet year is conducted according to the historical and observed data of discharge. Case study shows that the application of the method in the medium-and-long-term prediction is feasible, reasonable, and effective with high precision. So, it is worthy of popularization and application.更多还原