【摘要】 应用泛系观控理论建立了界壳论中的系统周界的观控模型,并结合泛系风险观控分析技术将该模型应用于黄河流域水资源多维临界调控的风险分析中,通过对2010水平年的17组方案进行观控风险分析,将各方案的风险与比较收益(GBC)联系起来并进行了量化处理,结果表明该模型运作效果良好. 为当前黄河流域水资源多维临界调控风险分析提供了新的研究手段,为水文水资源学科的研究提供了新的思路及方法,对系统周界数学问题的最终解决也提供了有益的参考与借鉴.更多还原

【Abstract】 An observation-control model of boundary of system in the Periphery was established with the pansystems observation-control theory and applied to risk analysis of multi-dimensional critical allocation of water resources in Yellow River Basin combined with pansystems observation-control risk analysis technology. Observation-control risk analyses of 17 scenarios in 2010 were conducted and the risk of each scenario was connected with GBC and quantified. Results showed that the model operated well and offered new research tool for risk analysis of multi-dimensions critical allocation of water resources in Yellow River Basin nowadays. The building of the model of pansystems observation-control of the periphery provides a new way to research in the field of hydrology and water resources where the periphery is applied to and offers new references for final solution to the problem of boundary of system.更多还原