【摘要】 选用2003年6月21日到7月11日梅汛期12次暴雨和9次非暴雨过程,对其天气形势、物理量进行了合成平均对比分析;结合副热带高压脊线和地面锋面的位置,利用T213的20:00格点资料,计算和绘制了暴雨日和非暴雨日的合成平均物理量场,分析两类天气的热力和动力条件特征,揭示了它们之间的差异,并在此基础上建立了暴雨短期预报的概念模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 An analysis was made of 12 weather processes with rainstorms and 9 processes without rainstorms from 21 June to 11 July 2003. The synoptic patterns and physical quantities for the two kinds of processes were compared. The composite-average physical variables for the two kinds of weather processes were calculated, and the thermal and dynamical conditions were analyzed respectively using T213 grid data at 20:00, in combination with the position of the ridge line of Subtropical High and the position of the surface front. Based on the results, a concept prediction model for the short-range heavy rainfall was designed.更多还原