【摘要】 为更好地提高洪水资源利用率,探讨利用短期降雨预报信息来指导水库的实时调度,在总结常规的短期降雨预报精度分析方法存在问题的基础上,引入可能性-概率风险的方法进行短期降雨预报精度分析,以白龟山水库的短期降雨预报精度分析为例说明该方法的具体应用.可能性-概率风险概念简单,数学逻辑清晰,计算简便,特别适合于因历史数据少而形成的小样本问题.更多还原

【Abstract】 Rainfall forecast and flood forecast information is applyed deficiently in the traditional control of the limited elevation of a reservoir in the flood season. In this way, many reservoirs, especially in the north of china, have to spill a lot of surplus water when floods occur, while have little inflow after the flood season when they are allowed to store water to a relatively high elevation. In order to make use of flood resources adequately and fully, the application of short-term rainfall forecast method to guide real-time regulation is discussed. With the summary of problems in precision analysis methods of traditional rainfall forecast, possibility-probability risk analysis method is introduced for rainfall forecast precision analysis. The precision analysis of rainfall forecast for Baiguishan reservoir is provided as an example to illustrate the application of the presented method. With the feature of simple concept, clear mathematical logic and easy computation, possibility-probability risk analysis method is particularly suitable for small sample problems with scant sample data.更多还原