【摘要】 在分析北京市海淀区人口增长与商业发展的基础上,运用空间相互作用理论和模型, 定量地测算了海淀区各个街乡的人口潜能与商业吸引力,对该区的人口与商业分布状况及其空间互动关系进行了分析,并根据人口增长的组合预测结果对未来海淀区各个街乡商业配置进行了具体的测算,在为商业发展布局规划提供决策支持的同时,探讨一种城市商业活动的空间分析框架。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the interaction between commercial development and population growth is a new active research area in human geography. This paper basically reviews the theories in the study on the spatial structure of urban commercial activities and discusses the several quantitative methods in commercial spatial analysis. However, the GIS and many other important spatial models have not been used very well in such a research. Based on the retrospection of domestic research concerned, the paper gives a detailed discussion on the analytical framework of the application of spatial interactive models in geographic distribution patterns between population and commerce in Haidian District of Beijing. As a matter of fact, the spatial interactive models including potential model and Lashmanan-Hansen model are successful analytical tools in transportation planning as well as urban and regional research, but these traditional models are seldom used in commercial spatial allocation and planning. In this paper, the calculation of population potential and the retailing probability (Lashmanan-Hansen model) in different areas in Haidian District generates two different spectrums. This kind of spatial spectrums are a significantly important way for better observing the spatial consistency between population distribution and commercial distribution. Therefore, the commercial spatial planning decision can be made according to the consistency and population growth forecast. This paper indicates that, since the 1980s, both population and commercial growth in Haidian District has been dramatically rapid than before. However, the quantitative analysis shows that there is little consistency between the development of population distribution and commercial distribution in Haidian District, which is the biggest administrative area in Beijing. The fact is that the commercial growth always lags behind population growth. In 2001, we can divide the commercial centers into four grades. Based on the results of population growth forecast and the spatial consistency, the commercial allocation for different areas in Haidian District has been calculated for spatial planning in the future.更多还原