【摘要】 棉花是重要的农业经济作物,对气候变化特别是温度变化很敏感。该文运用温度适宜度模型,选取河南省46县区,对该省棉花生产适宜性的生育期和时空差异进行计算、评价及预测。首先分析棉花各生育期温度适宜度,结果表明,播种期、吐絮期适宜度较低,受温度影响较大,具有较高的变率,出苗期、现蕾期、开花期表现出较高的温度适宜度,受温度影响较小,变率也较小;其次分析河南省各县区的平均温度适宜度,并据此将河南省分为高、中、低三大适宜度类型区;最后分析棉花各生育期温度适宜度的年际变化,发现未来各生育期中开花期无明显变动,其它生育期适宜度未来都有升高趋势,同时对河南省46县区的棉花温度适宜度变化趋势作分析,结果表明河南省各县区温度适宜度都有升高趋势,且存在地区差异,根据未来适宜度变化倾向的大小,将河南省划为强增长、次强增长、弱增长三大变动类型区。更多还原

【Abstract】 Being an important crop, cotton is sensitive to temperature change. Selecting 46 counties in Henan province and using the temperature suitability model, the article calculates the temperature suitability of cotton, evaluates the temporal and spatial differences and also predicts the temperature suitability of cotton. Firstly, the article analyzes the temperature suitability of cotton at different growth stages. The result shows that temperature change has a great impact on the temperature suitability of seeding stage and boll opening stage, both of which have the low suitability and the high variability. On the contrary, the other three stages have the high suitability and the low variability. This is caused by the temperature differences between the different growth stages; secondly, the article analyzes the average temperature suitability of 46 counties, based on which the article divides Henan province into three regions: the high suitability region, whose value is higher than 0.7; the medium suitability region, whose value ranges from 0.6 to 0.7; the low suitability region, whose value is lower than 0.6; finally, the article analyzes the inter-annual change of temperature suitability at different growth stages and the result shows all the growth stages except for flower stage in the future have the increasing tendency. At the same time it analyzes the temperature suitability change tendency of 46 counties, and finds that these places also have the increasing tendency and there exists difference among them. Similarly the article divides Henan province into three suitability change tendency regions: the high-increase, whose value is higher than 0.015/a and which mainly distributes in the southwest of Henan province; the medium-increase region, whose value ranges from 0.015/a to 0.01/a and mainly distributes in the center, the southeast, the east and the northeast of Henan province; the low-increase region, whose value is lower than 0.01/a and which mainly distributes in the northwest of Henan province according to the values and the suitability change tendency of seeding stage and boll opening stage and the features of terrain of 46 counties.更多还原