【摘要】 油气产量的精确预测是油气优化配产的前提 ,目前对于油气产量的预测模式大都局限于油气产量与其单影响因素之间的非线性关系模式 (多项式回归 )或是油气产量与其多影响因素之间的线性关系模式 (多元线性回归 ) ,而没有油气产量与其多影响因素之间的非线性关系模式。文章利用功能模拟原理 (微分模拟方法及神经网络方法 ) ,建立了气田的产量等开发指标与其影响因素之间的关联关系 ,以此对气田优化配产模型进行准确而有效的约束 ,建立产量最大 (定成本 )、成本最低 (定产量 )、效益最好 (定产量、定成本 )的产量分配优化模型 ,并且利用SUMT方法进行了求解。这些优化模型成功地解决了气田的总产量和对应的工作量及其它开发指标最优地分配到各二级开采单位的一系列问题 ,应用于国内某中后期开发气田的开发规划中取得了较好的经济效益。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is the prerequisite of optional allocation of oil &- gas production to accurately predict oil &?gas pro duction. Present methods to predict oil &- gas production are limited within the non-linear relationship between the pro duction and a single factor(polynomial regression) , or within the linear relationship between the production and multiple factors(multiple linear regression). There is no method with non-linear relationship between the production and multiple factors now. Using functional simulation principle (differen tial simulation method and NN method) , the correlative rela tionship between the development indexes of gas fields, such as production, etc. , and their influencing factors is estab lished, which can constrain the optimized model of produc tion allocation accurately and effectively. So, the optimized model of production allocation with maximum production (given cost), minimum cost (given production) and maxi mum benefit(given production and cost) is set up. And the model is resolved by SUMT algorithm. The optimized model successfully solves the problems of the total output of the gas field and the corresponding workload, and the optimaldistributing the other development indexes to the subsidiary units, etc. Applying the model for the development plan of a domestic gas field in medium or late stage, the satisfactory e conomic benefits have been obtained.更多还原