【摘要】 根据 NCAR/ Reg CM2区域气候模式单向嵌套 CSIROR2 1 L9全球大气 -海洋耦合模式模拟 CO2 浓度倍增情况下海南岛气候变化状况及荔枝生长对气候条件的要求 ,探讨 CO2 倍增情况下 ,气候变化对海南岛荔枝生产的影响 ,主要表现有中迟熟品种花芽分化和成花受阻 ,栽培品种趋向早熟 ,栽培区域向岛中部及内陆地区迁移 ,荔枝病虫害将更加严重及产量和经济效益均有可能降低 ,并提出了相应的技术对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The regional climate model NCAR/Reg CM2 was nested into the atmosphere-ocean of globe coupling model (AOGCM) CSIROR 21 L 9 to simulate the climate change induced by the multiplication of CO 2 and the requirement to the climate condition for the growth of litchi in Hainan Island. And then the effect of the climate change on the production of litchi in the island was analyzed. The results indicated that the negative effects would be the differentiation of flower bud and blossom being blocked in the medium and later mature varieties,the cultivars showing a tendency to be early mature, the cultivation area of the fruit moving to central of the island and inland, diseases and insects being more serious, and the yield and economic benefit decreasing. The relevant countermeasures were posed also in the paper.更多还原