【摘要】 结合浙江电力发电市场超短期负荷预测的需求,在充分分析电网负荷特性的基础上,提出了基于负荷趋势的新型超短期负荷预测法。该方法简单实用,并将负荷伪数据的判别和加工修改融合在预测过程中。算例分析表明,该方法预测结果误差分析指标优于浙江发电市场中现行的各种超短期预测方法,是一种工程实用性较强的方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the requirement of ultra-short term load forecasting in Zhejiang provincial power generation market and on the basis of fully analyzing the load characteristics, a novel ultra-short term load forecasting method based on the trend of power load fluctuation is proposed. In this method the identification and correction of pseudo data are integrated into the load forecasting process. This method is simple and practicable; the practical application of this method shows that its error analysis index is better than that from other ultra-short load forecasting method being used in Zhejiang provincial power generation market.更多还原