【摘要】 从共因失效发生的机理出发,利用条件概率,从系统中某一指定部件的可靠度推广到某指定m个部件均完好的概率,建立了与实际更相吻合的共因失效新模型·该模型使用简便,并能更全面地计算系统元件之间的相关性,弥补了传统共因失效模型的信息遗漏问题,同时也避免了传统共因失效模型所面临的组合爆炸问题·最后给出实例,并将典型的串联和并联系统的计算结果与β因子模型的计算结果相比较·结果表明,β因子模型偏于保守,这与定性分析的结果相吻合,也证明了该理论模型的正确性·更多还原

【Abstract】 Starting from the happening mechanism of common cause failures, a new common cause failure model was developed by using conditional probability. According to the reliability expression of some specific components, the probability that some specific m components were all good was obtained. The model can be used easily and approximates further to the real system. It makes up for the insufficiences of traditional common cause failure models, thus avoiding the NP problem. Several typical systems are given to exemplify how to use the new model, with the calculated results compared to those resulting from β-factor model. The results show that it is highly consistent with qualitative analysis, and the model’s correctiveness is thus proved.更多还原