【摘要】 根据大坝裂缝开度实测资料的特点,将裂缝开度{xt}看成一系列时刻t1,t2,…,tn得到的时间序列,采用基于滑动平均模型MA(q)的非平稳时间序列法,对其进行模型识别、参数估计和新息预报。通过概率分布函数对其规律性进行统计描述,克服了常规回归分析方法的不足。计算结果表明,该方法预报精度高,是一种行之有效的方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of the characteristics of dam crack data, the crack openings is considered as a time series. The moving average model-based nonstationary time series method is used in the model distinction, parameter estimation, and new information prediction in this paper. This method overcomes the disadvantages existing in the regression analysis with the statistic analyzing. The computation results show that this method is reasonable in the predication of the crack openings, and the prediction reliability is good.更多还原