【摘要】 介绍目前较常用的动态模型——Markov和Celluar Automata模型及其在土地利用变化研究中的应用;着重分析了基于Markov_CA的土地利用变化动态模型,并利用两期TM数据进行Markov_CA模型应用试验研究。结果表明:Markov_CA模型可以克服马尔可夫分析本身固有的问题——没有考虑每种土地利用类型的空间分布,而CA恰好能弥补Markov模型的不足;同时Markov_CA模型也发挥了CA和Markov模型的优点,使得它能更好地对土地利用变化进行模拟和预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper introduces the dynamic models in common use,i.e.,Markov model and Celluar Automata model,and their applications in the study of land use change.Then,the paper analyzes the dynamic models of land use change based on Markov-CA, and makes a try on application of Markov-CA model with two-stage data.The results indicate that Markov-CA model is capable of conquering its intrinsic problem lack of considering special distribution of each type of land use.However,CA method can make up the deficiency due to Markov model.At the same time,Markov-CA model exerts both excellences of CA and Markov model,which is more available to simulate and predict the land use change.更多还原