【摘要】 自 1 949年国民党逃台以来 ,台湾与祖国大陆一直处于分离状态。 5 0多年来 ,两岸关系经历了军事对抗、和平对峙、民间交流、分裂与反分裂等几个阶段。当前的两岸关系有两条相反的主线 ,一条是两岸民间往来与文化交流持续扩大 ,两岸经济互惠互补并走向一体化 ,两岸科技交流与合作全面展开 ,台湾民众对祖国与“一国两制”的认同增多 ,但另一方面两岸直航与完全“三通”仍未能实现 ,两岸政治僵局持续 ,台海潜伏着新的危机。未来的两岸关系一方面取决于台湾当局的政策走向 ,另一方面受经济客观规律及两岸人民反对“台独”、赞成统一血缘情感影响 ,加上祖国大陆强大综合实力产生的震慑力 ,台湾当局不敢公开宣布“台湾独立”。不过 ,两岸政治僵局短期内难获突破 ,不排除两岸发生小摩擦的可能性更多还原

【Abstract】 Taiwan and the mainland has been separated from each other naturally and politically since 1949. The relationship has experienced several periods from military confrontation to non government communications in economy, culture, science and technology. Now, more and more Taiwanese come to accept the one country two system policy, but the political ice has not been broken. “Where will it go” just depends on the one hand the policy of the Taiwan Province and on the other the feeling of the Taiwanese as well as the natural law of economy. The ice cannot be broken in a short time and the possibility that minor clashes cannot be avoided still exists.更多还原