【摘要】 基于Monte Carlo法 ,对冰区海洋平台静态冰载荷的概率特性进行了分析。在平台设计评估载荷的计算中引入广义冰载荷“当量冰力”的概念 ,并用此概念对冰厚和冰强度的联合作用进行了评估。以渤海辽东湾 4个典型台站为例 ,分析了静态冰载荷主要影响因素的概率特性 ,给出了这几个台站附近海域当量冰力的概率分布参数 ,并定量分析了冰厚和气温对当量冰力的影响。模拟结果表明 ,应用Weibull分布描述概率当量冰力是可行的。此外 ,采用多年一遇的极值条件下冰参数组合求得的当量冰力值比Monte Carlo模拟结果保守得多 ,在工程应用中 ,可采用当量冰力作为平台设计载荷的基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 The probabilistic properties of static ice load on offshore platforms in ice zone are investigated by using Monte Carlo method. A new concept of equivalent ice load is introduced in consideration of the combination effect of both ice thickness and ice strength in the estimation of design loading for offshore structures.Taking four typical stations in Liaodong Bay of Bohai Sea as examples,the statistic properties of some important factors related with ice load are discussed,and probabilistic distribution parameters of equivalent ice load for the regions near to the four stations are determined. The influence of ice thickness and temperature on equivalent ice loads is assessed.Simulation results show that probabilistic equivalent ice load may be described by Weibull distribution.In addition,ice loads calculated with extreme values of ice parameters are much more conservative than those by Monte Carlo method. It is suggested that equivalent ice load based on Monte Carlo simulation can be used as loading design in engineering application.更多还原