【摘要】 运用季节分解、回归分析等时序分析方法对该泉 42年 (195 8- 1999)的月观测流量资料和大气降水、人类开采地下水资料进行了分析处理。结果表明大气降水的减少是神头泉流量衰减的主要原因 ,其控制着泉流量变化的基本趋势 ,而人类活动对泉流量的衰减起促进作用 ,属次要因素。其中 ,泉流量对大气降水变化的响应存在 11年的滞后期 ,对 390～ 45 0 mm区间的年降雨量变化响应最敏感 ;而泉流量对人类活动的响应只有在第四系孔隙水开采量大于 5× 10 7m3 / a时才明显。在此基础上 ,预测了泉流量未来演化趋势。此外 ,对山西近几十年来出现泉流量普遍减少的原因进行了讨论。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Shentou spring located in Shuozhou city of Shanxi province is one of the famous karst spring in North China. The spring discharge, which had decreased to the minimun of the observation records-from 9.81m 3/s in 1964 to 3.81m 3/s in 1993, has been declining year by year since the mid - late 1960’s. To analysis the monthly observation data during 1958-1999 about the spring discharge, the precipitation and the ground water extraction in the study area, the seasonal decomposition method and regressional method were used in this paper. It is showed that the reduction of precipitation, which has been controlling the evolution trend of the spring discharge, was the major factor of the declination of the spring discharge, and that human activity, which plays a increasing role in the declination of the spring discharge, is the secondary factor of effect on the spring discharge. The analysis indicates that the springs discharge is the most sensitive to the precipitation change in the range from 390mm to 450mm, and obviously responds to the precipitation change 11 years ago, and that human activity clearly affects the spring discharge as the extraction of porous water is more than 5×10 7m 3/a. On the basis of these, the spring discharge in 11 years of the near future was predicted. Furthermore, the declining reasons of the discharge of karst springs in Shanxi province in recent decades were discussed.更多还原