【摘要】 在传统的网络计划技术中 ,网络边长是固定的 ,这种网络模型不能很好地适应建筑工程的实践。本文提出边长可变的柔性网络模型 ,用以反映施工工序自身的随机性。在统计分析的基础上 ,建立了施工过程中各主导工序的概率模型 ,确定了相应的概率分布参数。然后 ,用计算机仿真的手段确定柔性网络的主要指标。在一次仿真计算中 ,每条边的边长是由符合其自身概率模型的随机数发生器产生的一个随机数 ,但在同一次仿真计算中边长是唯一确定的。这相当于对各工序的一次取样。对大量仿真计算结果进行统计分析 ,可以得到总工期及关键路线的概率分布结果 ,为施工管理提供更多的信息更多还原

【Abstract】 The arc length in traditional network plan is fixed.This kind of network model is unsuitable for construction process analysis.After discusson of the defects of rigid network plan,the concept of Flexible Network Plan (FNP) is adopted corresponding to the random in work procedure.Based on statistics,the probability models of main processes in civil engineering project are suggested and their key parameters are determined.Then, the computer simulation algorithm for FNP analysis is put forward in the form of flow chart.The random generators create one value for each arc in one turn of simulation.The generators are coinciding with the probability model for the same work procedure. For one turn of simulation,the rigid network plan algorithm is used.After enough turns of simulation,the distribution of the total work period can be determined,at the same time the critical path can be found in the probability concept.更多还原