【摘要】 [目的 ]通过分析上海市急性职业中毒发生情况 ,寻找其发生和发展规律 ,为预防急性职业中毒事故提供依据。 [方法 ]以现场调查和病例报告资料为基础 ,用SPSS统计软件进行分析 ,并采用自相关分析、二次移动平均法以及时间序列趋势预测对本市 2 0 0 1～ 2 0 0 3年的急性职业中毒趋势进行预测。 [结果 ]上海市 1992～ 2 0 0 0年发生的急性职业中毒的主要毒物品种是一氧化碳、硫化氢等 ,由两者引起的中毒病例占总数的 33 6 % ;中毒病例在低工龄组较为集中 ;化工行业中毒病例数占总数的 42 6 % ;中毒发生的主要直接原因是没有个人防护设备、不使用个人防护用品或使用不当以及缺乏安全教育等 ;工作后 1～ 2h中毒发生的可能性较大 ;9年的中毒死亡率为 12 6 %。时间序列趋势预测发现急性职业中毒在历年的变化趋势基本上是不规则的 ,但整体呈下降趋势 ,预测 2 0 0 1、2 0 0 2、2 0 0 3年急性职业中毒发生的病例数分别约为 44、43和 42例。 [结论 ]一氧化碳和硫化氢仍是上海市急性职业中毒的主要有害物质 ,对其防护工作尤其是个人防护措施需进一步加强和完善更多还原

【Abstract】 Through analyzing the past 9 year experience of acute occupational poisoning in Shanghai,we try to find out the risk factors and seek the preventive measures against these accidents. The date from the poisoning case reporting system and the data from our field survey were analyzed by SPSS software. We also use autocorrelation and time series methods to forecast the trend of acute occupational poisoning in Shanghai in the next 3 years. During 1992～2000 the main poisoning were due to carbon monoxide and hydrogen sulfide,which occupied 33 6% of the total cases. 42 6% of the total occurred in the chemical industry. Most of poisoning cases were of short working age. The main causes of poisoning incidents were due to lacking,un using or misusing personal protective equipments,lacking safety education etc. 1～2 hours after starting work,occurrence of the accidents reached peak. The 9 year total mortality was 12 6%. The trend of acute occupational poisoning in Shanghai was unsteady in the past 20 years,but the trend was descending on the whole. We forecast the number of acute occupational poisoning in Shanghai in 2001～2003 years is about 44,43 and 42 cases,respectively. [Conclusion] Carbon monoxide and hydrogen sulfide are still major toxicants of acute occupational poisoning in Shanghai,further strengthening the preventive measures,especially personal protection and education is impevative.更多还原