【摘要】 在对华东地区近 30年来地震活动场和地震前兆场的动态演化图像进行追踪分析的基础上 ,重点研究该地区中短期地震前兆的区域特征。结果表明 ,孕震过程中的中短期阶段是客观存在的 ,也是可以识别的。孕震过程进入中短期阶段的主要标志如下 :1区域震群频次突增 (1年内发生 3次以上 ML ≥ 3.0震群 ) ;2发生显著性的逼近地震 ;3出现动态性地震条带 (或动态性地震空区 ) ;4出现前兆性群体异常 ;5地震活动性参数出现动态变化。据此建立了华东地区中短期预报指标体系和预报方法 ,并在地震预报实践中取得了较好的效果。文中还对中短期地震前兆的普适性及强震发生地点预报等问题进行了讨论。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on analysis of seismicity pattern evolution and precursor field evolution prior to major earthquakes in East China in recent 30 years, regional characteristics of the medium and short term earthquake precursors in the region have been emphatically studied in this paper. The results show that the medium and short term stage in earthquake preparing process exists objectively and can be recognized. The main indices for the transitional period from the medium term stage to the medium and short term stage of the preparation process are as follows: ①Abrupt increase of the number of regional swarms (more than 3 swarms in a year with M L ≥3.0); ②Occurrence of the significant imminent earthquakes; ③Appearance of dynamic seismic activity belt (or dynamic seismic gap); ④Appearance of group precursory anomalies; ⑤Appearance of dynamic changes of seismicity parameters. Based on the results mentioned above we have built a medium and short term prediction index system and method with good prediction effect in East China. Finally, the general applicability of the medium and short term earthquake precursors and the issue regarding prediction of future strong earthquakes site have been discussed.更多还原