【Abstract】 Catastrophic sesmic events, such as a sudden collapse of open pits and underground excavations,as well as a vast surface subsidence induced by mining activities, present serious dangers to the modem infrastructure . In fact these "sudden" events are the result of long-term preparatory processes, which are occurring in mine pillars and ambient rock.The kinetic approach was proposed for the descripiton of the preparatory process.The process presents a stochastic accumulation of defects in rock caused by a long-term redistribution of stress-strain in an ambient rock massif. Case studies related to mining activities at Zhezkazgan copper mines, Rep. kazakhstan, were coni\sidered.As was shown the seismic monitoring is a good method for forecasting catastrophic caving and surface subsidence.更多还原