【摘要】 国家气象中心与北京市气象局联合开发并将于１９９９ 年底建成“北京地区中尺度数值天气预报业务系统”．作为开发的第一阶段，以ＰＳＵ／ＮＣＡＲ的ＭＭ５ 非静力中尺度模式为基础，在国家气象中心ＩＢＭ／ＳＰ２机并行运算环境下与国家气象中心资料源连接并应用北京地区加密地面观测资料，初步建成了“北京地区中尺度数值天气预报试验系统”（以下简称ＢＪ－ＭＭ５Ｖ．１）．模式设计为垂直２３ 层，水平分辨率分别为４５ 和１５ ｋｍ 的两重双向嵌套网格．在ＩＢＭ／ＳＰ２ 计算机上用２４ 个节点作３６ ｈ 预报所需机时为２ ｈ ２０ ｍ ｉｎ，满足实时业务预报需要．该系统于１９９７ 年夏季进行了实时运行试验，可提供北京地区每小时降水量预报和每３ ｈ 多种气象要素预报，预报产品在北京市气象局试用．结果表明，系统有较强的稳定性和实用性，对降水时空分布的预报效果较好．更多还原

【Abstract】 A big progress has been made on the development of the mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) system for Beijing area, a joint project of National Meteorological Center (NMC) and Beijing Meteorological Bureau (BMB).On the basis of the PSU/NCAR′s nonhydrostatic mesoscale model version 5 (MM 5), an experimental mesoscale NWP system for Beijing area (BJ MM 5 V.1) was created, in which the model is two way nested with 45 and 15 km horizontal resolution for coarse and fine mesh, respectively, and 23 σ layers in vertical;and it is run on the parallel environment of IBM/SP2 with 24 nodes for 36 h prediction, while 2 h and 20 min in computing time is able to meet the time requirement for real time operational application. The BJ MM5 V.1 is linked with the data resources of the NMC as well as the data set of intensive surface observation over Beijing area. And encouragingly, it was run stably in real time and its products were referenced by the weather office of BMB for weather forecasts during the whole summer of 1997. The verification results indicate that the model can predict reasonably the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation.更多还原