【摘要】 本文应用室内模拟与野外实地调查相结合的方法，对中国东北森林草原样带上生物群区及其过渡带的位置与面积进行了判定，并预测了未来全球变化条件下生物群区及过渡带可能的变化趋势。结果表明：中国东北样带内的生物群区和过渡带可由基于气候数据和Ｈｏｌｄｒｉｄｇｅ方法的数量模型较确切地判定出，与实际调查的结果吻合较好。在未来气候变化下，过渡带面积呈扩大化趋势；森林区对降水量的变化反应敏感；草原区地理分布位置变动很大，但其相对面积变化较小；荒漠灌丛对全球变化的反应最为剧烈。更多还原

【Abstract】 The main biomes and ecotones along Northeast China Transect (NECT) were identified by means of the Model, Biodiversity Pattern Analysis (BPA) derived from the climate data sets measured since 1950s, and the Holdridge Life Zone System. Such a simulation was tested through the actual field investigation. The results show that locations and areas of the main biomes and the ecotones lying between them could be accurately distinguished through the BPA model. And the simulated distribution of biomes and ecotones was in agreement with that of actual geography location and plant community investigation. The responses of biomes and ecotones to global change can be also simulated using the Model. Under global climate change, the areas of some ecotones may increase. It is quite sensitive for the forest biome respond to the change of precipitation. There would be a large change in the location of grass biome, but the change in its relative area could be small. The shrub biome along NECT, nevertheless, would be most violent when global change occurs.更多还原