【摘要】 12年粘虫幼虫量与诱蛾量间的统计结果，单纯依据诱蛾量预测幼虫量的方法出入很大，历史拟合率仅66．7％，难以指导药剂防治，分析了幼虫量与谷草把卵块数与卵粒数之间的关系，相关密切，幼虫量与卵块数r＝0.745，幼虫量与卵粒数相关性也很显著．又对历史资料进行分析，幼虫量与6月份气象要素之间的关系也相当密切r=0.746，与6月上中旬相对湿度相关系数r=0.6682，与该两句降雨天数r＝－0.6019，与6月份平均相对湿度r＝－0．6519．用电子计算机筛选出的5个参效因子，制定出幼虫量预测多元回归模型．Y＝191.56－0.0035X1＋0.0004X2－10.943X3＋9.534X4－2．371X5，公式历史回朔拟合率92％，1993～1995年运用准确.更多还原

【Abstract】 Acording to the 12 years’ statistics results between the larva quantities and the induction phalaenae quantities, the prediction method of larva guaDtity judging only by the amount of induction phalaenae has some discrepancy. History-fitting ratio is only 66. 7%. It is difficult to guide the chemical controlWe analysed the relation between the amount larva and the number of a bundle of millet straw egg masses and egg granules, the correlation is close. The correlation between the larvas quantities and the number of egg masses r=0. 745. The correlation between the larva= quantities and egg granules is also very distinguished. And after analysed the history materials, the correlation coefficient of the larva quantities with the June meteorology factor is also very closed r=0. 746, with the relative humidity of the first and second ten-day period of a month r=0. 6682, with the rain days of this two ten-days r=-0. 6069, with the June everage ralative humidity r=-0. 6519. The multiple regression mode of thelarva quantity prediction is made with five paremeter factors screened by electronic computer. Y=191. 56-0. 0035Xz+0. 0004X2-10. 943X3+9. 53X4-2. 371X5 The history-fitting ratio of this formula is 92%. The application of this formula is accurate in 1993-1995.更多还原