【摘要】 根据1990～1995年布氏菌病全国监测点羊、牛、猪、人的血清学阳性率资料,利用灰色模型和加权平均法,建立了两种数学预报模型,将两种预报值取算术平均进行综合后,给出了1996～1997的布病阳性率预报值。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the brucellosis serological positive rates of the sheep, ox, pig and man in fifteen National Key Surveillance Points during 1990- 1995,the two kinds models,the grey model and the weighted average model, were conducted to forecast positive rates respectively. Moreover ,comprehensive forecast on these models was obtained by arithemetic average. Finally,the forecast values of positive rates in 1996-1997 were given respectively.更多还原