【摘要】 完善灰色预测模型ＧＭ（１，１）的建模机理，使其具有更广泛的应用性。否定了灰色预测的传统检验方法后验差检验方法，同时利用数理统计常用方法对模型进行了比较深入的研究。实例表明改进的ＧＭ（１，１）模型具有较高的拟合精度和预测精度。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper presents an improved method which is based on the grey model used to forecast a power system.With this method,the applicable range of the GM(1,1) modle is widened.The paper shows that the traditional method of precision test of GM(1,1) is unsuitable and presents a statistical method of precision test.By analyzing an actual example we can see that this method is very effective.Discussinos about the error control are also mode.更多还原