【摘要】 本文根据历史水温资料分别建立无维温度θＴ，和无维深度η，进而建立水温垂直剖面的无维自模函数θＴ＝ｆ（η）。在此基础上，利用热传导方程在忽略平流和侧向涡动效应条件下建立描述表层水温（ＴＳ）、底层水温（ＴＨ）和上均匀层厚度（ｈ）的一维模式。利用本模式试报了（时效为５ｄ，１０ｄ，１５ｄ）南黄海２０个站的ＴＳ，ＴＨ，ｈ及温跃层厚度和强度，结果令人满意。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the heat conduction equation without consideration of the advection and turbulence effects, this paper develops a one-dimensional model for describing sea surface temperature(TS), bottom sea temperature(TH) and the thickness of the upper homogeneous layer(h) in terms of the dimensionless temperature θT and depth η and similarity function θT= f(η) of vertical temperature profile as recorded in historical temperature data. The results of trial prediction with our one-dimensional model on TS, TH, h,the thickness and gradient of thermocline are satisfactory to Some extent.更多还原