【摘要】 选用四川省有代表性的5个县(忠县、双流、宜宾、武胜、资中)11年3月份气象因素和小麦穗期蚜虫发生程度资料,运用模糊综合决策方法,建立了预测模型,用预测因子回代,历史符合率达94.12％;1991～1994年,5个县市实际预测符合率为75.00％。证明该模型对预测小麦穗期蚜虫发生程度有较好效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the meteorological data in March and the occurrence of wheat aphids in the earing stage of the crop in 5 representative counties of Sichuan (Zhongxian, Shuangliu, Yibin, Wusheng and Zizhong) in the past 11 years and adopting the fuzzy synthetic decision methods, a forecasting model for the occurrence of the pest was established. The historical coincidence was 94. 12% on the basis of returning measure using the forecasting factors. The actual forecasting accuracy of the 5 counties in 1991-1994 was 75. 00%. This indicated a satisfactory practical value of this model in forecasting the occurrence of wheat aphids in the earing stage.更多还原