【摘要】 塔里木盆地是我国最大的半封闭型内陆盆地。其气候特征为典型的暖温带大陆性极端干旱气候。本区独特的地理位置决定了海洋气流不易到达，即使来自太平洋与印度洋的最强盛的海洋气团抵达本区已成强弩之末，从而决定了本区降水稀少，变率大；气温变化剧烈；大风沙尘暴活动频繁。研究它的现代气候状况，以及未来变化规律，对当地工农业生产，具有重要意义。对区内３０年来的观测资料进行三年滑动平均结果表明，塔里木盆地主要气候要素在空间分布上的特征是：温度高、降水少；温度低、降水多；大风多、沙尘暴少；大风少、沙尘暴多。但由于各地所处地貌单元存在差异，所以气候要素在空间分布上略有不同。依据资料并经距平等方法分析，认为极端干旱的塔里木盆地的现代气候变化状况，总的为干冷、暖湿相交替的波动式发展趋势，而不是直线式的干旱发展趋势，就是到本世纪末、下世纪初，区内温度、降水的自然变化趋势也不会出现大的波动，即便降水有所增加，也不会超过极端干旱的指标。随着本区油气井的大规模开发引起的地表植被不断破坏，以及ＣＯ＿２温室增温效应导致的全球气温增加，使全区气候可能更为干旱，大风、沙尘暴日出现的频次将增多。更多还原

【Abstract】 Tarim Basin is the largest semi-closed inner-land Basin in China,With hyper-arid-ity, its climate is of typical warm temperate continental type.Depending on the very loca-tion beyond the reach of maritime airmass from the Indian and Pacific Ocean,Tarim Basinsees little and Very changable rainfall,wide air temperature range as well as frequent galesand the sand or the agriculture and industry to insight into the contemporary climate andthe rules of change.On the basis of three-year slip- average of the meteorological information gained inthe last 30 years(Fig.1),the spatial pattern of Tarim’s climate can be discerned:the higherthe temperature,the less the rainfall;the lower temperature,the more the rainfall;themore ftequent the gale,the less the sand or dust storm,the less frequent the gale,the morethe sand or dust storm,However,due to different geomorphic unit,the climate assumessome degree of difference in space,the east,experienced hisher temperature less rainfallprior to 1965,and lower temperature,more rainfall afterwards;less sand or dust storm af-terwards.With less obvious fluctuation cycle of higher temperature,less rainfall and lowertemperature,more rainfall, the west witnessed fewer gales,more sand or more sand or duststorms prior to 1962,more gales,fewer sand or dust storms from 1962 to 1970,as well asmore galesl,fewer dust storms ever since. The south saw lower temperature,more preicpi-tation in the 60’s,higher temperature,more precipitation in the early 70 s and higher tem-perature, less precipitation in the late 70 s;more gales,fewer sand or dust storms in themiddle 60 s and fewer gales more sand or dust storms afterwards,The west under-wentlower temperature,less rainfall,more gales,fewer dust or sand storms before the 70 s andthe opposite situation afterwards, As to the temporal distribution,Tarim possessed themaximum change of±0.4℃,in the recent 30 years with temperature increase of 0. 14℃,0.19℃,0. 01℃,0.06℃for the east,west,south and north resapectively(Fig.2). Two high temperature year(the early and late 70 s)and three low temperature year(the early or late 60’s and mid-70’s)appeared in the 30 year period,with 0.2-0.3℃temperature increase and 0.1-0. 6℃decrease respectively. In the eye of seasonal change,the themperature of the east is 0.2℃lowcr than that of west,the temperature in thesouthern edge is 1.2℃ higher than that of northern edge in Spring,In Summer, the easthas 1.7℃ more temperature than the west,the southern edge has 0.3℃ more than thenorthern edge, In Autumn,east iS 0.3℃ lower than the west in temperature and the south-ern edge 1.4℃ higher than the northern edge , While in Winter,the east is 1. 9℃ lowerthan the west,the southern edge is 1. 9℃ lower than the、west,the west is 0.2℃higherthan the east ,the southern edge is 1.4℃higher than northern edge(Tab.1).Controlledby the landform ,air circulation and vapouv supply ,Tarim s rainfall shows obvious tempo-ralspatial change(Fig. 2),Summer has the more than 75%of the annual amount and thatof Autumn, and Winter together accounts for less than 25%(Tab. 2).Inter-annual tem-perature variation is apparent because in this hiper-arid region,usually one two rainfallprocesses result in the very changable amount of precipitation. Better regularity ean beseen in the inter-annual distribution of gales and sand or dust storms: It was a periodwith more gales,sand or dust stotrns gas been reduced ever since. However,regional varia-tion also exists. Except for slight increase in the south,the frequency has been reduced by1.5-5.0 days in the other areas(Fig.2).The reasons are:the shelter effect of oasis,andthe ground surface destruction caused by human activities,such as oil exploitment.Based on above information,it is believed that in the hyperarid Tarim Basin,the gen-eral tendency of climatic change is that dry and cold aItemating with warm and humid.It isby no means straight line develoment of aridity,even at the end of this century or the be-ginning of next century,the fluctuatfon range of temperature and rainfall will still be nar-tow,withi更多还原